The federal government will face a partial government shutdown next Friday night if House and Senate negotiators can’t reach a deal to keep it open. More spending bills expire the following Friday, which would result in a full government shutdown.

“And some observers on Capitol Hill are already warning that the current fight is the greatest shutdown threat of this Congress,” The Hill reported this morning.

Appropriators in both chambers are working on a compromise stopgap spending bill that could be released this weekend.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) told CBS News’ The Takeout podcast that he puts the chances of a shutdown at 50-50. He noted that the burden is on House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Johnson could side with hardline conservatives frustrated that the compromise stopgap bill won’t include controversial provisions on such topics as abortion and immigration. That would likely lead to a shutdown. Or he could a back the bipartisan deal, which would likely keep the government open but may cost him his speaker’s gavel, resulting in the weeks-long paralysis the House went through last year when it had no speaker.

“The House is working hard to meet the deadlines,” a spokesperson for Johnson told The Hill.